Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia

David E. Bloom, David Canning and Jocelyn E. Finlay

in The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia

Published by University of Chicago Press

Published in print October 2010 | ISBN: 9780226386850
Published online February 2013 | e-ISBN: 9780226386881 | DOI:
Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia

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This chapter focuses on the shifting age structure in Asia. The chapter examines how much effect aging would have on economic growth in the process of dissolving the first demographic dividend. Reduced-form regressions are employed, explaining per capita growth by demographic factors, in addition to a standard set from the convergence growth model. The long-run effect of demographic composition is estimated from the coefficients of the young-age share and old-age share at the initial year. The old-age share turns out to be insignificant in affecting per capita growth, while the young-age share at the initial year turns out to affect growth negatively. The chapter emphasizes an increase in the female labor participation rate, the quantity-quality trade-off for children, a change in saving behavior and a change in social security. The chapter ends wiith a literature survey of these behavioral responses.

Keywords: age structure; economic growth; demographic dividend; reduced-form regressions; per capita growth; convergence growth model

Chapter.  11330 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Business and Management

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