Chapter

Measuring the Campaign's Impact

in The Race to 270

Published by University of Chicago Press

Published in print November 2006 | ISBN: 9780226751337
Published online March 2013 | e-ISBN: 9780226751368 | DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226751368.003.0005
Measuring the Campaign's Impact

Show Summary Details

Preview

This chapter examines the influence of campaigning on voters' preferences. The goal is to consider campaigning effects from a variety of perspectives. First, the chapter examines the impact across states and then across media markets, and second, considers the influence of campaigning on not only candidate support but also voters' favorability ratings of the candidates. Third, it estimates mobilization and persuasion effects through the use of control and interactive variables in multivariate models, and fourth, uses pooled time series data to construct a more dynamic (and realistic) picture of campaign effects. At first glance the data seem to demonstrate that campaigning advantages accrued over the fall do not consistently or significantly affect either vote choice or candidate favorability advantages. Upon closer inspection, however, it becomes clear that this is because both sides expend sufficient resources to get their messages out and because it is rare that one side allows the other to sustain a campaigning advantage in a competitive state. This interpretation is most clearly borne out by the pooled time series analysis, which provides evidence that short-term campaigning advantages produce support gains.

Keywords: presidential campaigns; voters' preferences; campaigning effects; favorability ratings; candidate support

Chapter.  12001 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: US Politics

Full text: subscription required

How to subscribe Recommend to my Librarian

Users without a subscription are not able to see the full content. Please, subscribe or login to access all content.