Chapter

Clinical Prediction Models

Wesley K. Thompson, Ji-in Choi and Stewart Anderson

in Late-Life Mood Disorders

Published on behalf of Oxford University Press

Published in print February 2013 | ISBN: 9780199796816
Published online June 2013 | e-ISBN: 9780199323081 | DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199796816.003.0041
Clinical Prediction Models

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  • Old Age Psychiatry
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Clinical trials of mood disorders in late-life frequently use time to the occurrence of an event as the primary study outcome. In recent years, it has become common to collect additional variables repeatedly over multiple time points, augmenting the primary time-to-event outcome, including variables related to physical health and functioning, biological correlates of illness, contextual variables such as negative life events, and cognitive impairments. In this chapter we describe “joint models,” which incorporate these longitudinal data to predict future time-to-event outcomes. These predictive models can be useful in a clinical setting where interest centers on using a set of patient characteristics, obtained over multiple time points, to obtain a prognosis regarding onset of mental illness. Joint models also allow for updatable individualized prediction of clinical outcomes as more data become available on a given patient over time.

Chapter.  7142 words. 

Subjects: Old Age Psychiatry ; Neurology

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