Fiscal shocks and the real exchange rate: evidence from an outpost of textbook open-economy macroeconomics
in Oxford Economic Papers
April 2014; p ublished online June 2013 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance. 8178 words.
Recent empirical research into the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy shocks has generated a ‘puzzle’. Both Keynesian and Real Business Cycle models predict that a fiscal expansion will...
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Fossil fuel producers under threat
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
January 2016; p ublished online April 2016 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Economics; Technological Change; Research and Development; Non-renewable Resources and Conservation; Energy Economics; Environmental Economics. 9448 words.
Oil and gas producers face three threats: prolonged low oil and gas prices, tightening of climate policy and a tough budget on cumulative carbon emissions, and technological innovation...
The four fallacies of contemporary austerity policies: the lost Keynesian legacy
in Cambridge Journal of Economics
January 2012; p ublished online January 2012 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Public Economics; History of Economic Thought (1925 onwards); Economywide Country Studies; Money and Interest Rates; International Finance; National Budget, Deficit, and Debt; General Aggregative Models; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance. 11726 words.
The contemporary wide-scale austerity measures are likely to fail in most countries. The first fallacy derives from the false diagnosis that the present crisis is the outcome of lax public...
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Growth in the Shadow of Expropriation
in The Quarterly Journal of Economics
May 2011; p ublished online June 2011 .
Journal Article. Subjects: International Factor Movements and International Business; Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity; International Finance; Capitalist Systems; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance. 15695 words.
We propose a tractable variant of the open economy neoclassical growth model that emphasizes political economy and contracting frictions. The political economy frictions involve a...
Inflation targeting monetary and fiscal policies in a two-country stock–flow-consistent model
in Cambridge Journal of Economics
July 2014; p ublished online November 2013 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance. 11494 words.
This paper develops a simple two-country stock–flow-consistent model based on that of Godley and Lavoie. In order to motivate the use of stabilisation policies, persistent inflationary...
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Internationalization of the renminbi: what it means for the stability and flexibility of the international monetary system
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
January 2012; p ublished online September 2012 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; International Finance. 9905 words.
The central question this paper addresses is whether internationalization of the RMB would be sufficient for the international monetary system (IMS) to provide greater stability and...
Interstate risk sharing in Germany: 1970–2006
in Oxford Economic Papers
January 2013; p ublished online March 2012 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Public Economics. 9399 words.
We study the channels of interstate risk sharing in Germany for the time period 1970 to 2006, estimating the degrees of smoothing of a shock to a state's gross domestic product by factor...
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Is the accumulation of international reserves good for development?
in Cambridge Journal of Economics
September 2008; p ublished online June 2008 .
Journal Article. Subjects: General Aggregative Models; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Economic Development. 9028 words.
International reserves accumulation has been the preferred policy recently adopted by developing economies to achieve financial stability. The aim of this policy is to increase liquidity...
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The liquidation of government debt
in Economic Policy
April 2015; p ublished online March 2015 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Growth and Fluctuations; International Finance; National Budget, Deficit, and Debt; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance. 17204 words.
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression (FR), a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or...
Modelling a complex world: improving macro-models
in Oxford Review of Economic Policy
January 2018; p ublished online January 2018 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Econometrics and Mathematical Economics; Econometric Modelling; Mathematical Methods; Programming Methods; Mathematical and Simulation Modelling; General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium; Intertemporal Choice and Growth; General Aggregative Models; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance. 7587 words.
Abstract
Macro models have come under criticism for their ability to understand or predict major economic events such as the global financial crisis and its...
Money, housing and world market: the dialectic of globalised production
in Cambridge Journal of Economics
September 2011; p ublished online February 2011 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Money and Interest Rates; International Relations and International Political Economy; Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit; International Finance; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance. 10060 words.
This article offers an interpretation of the domestic and global dimensions of the US housing, financial and economic crisis in a Marxian framework. My key argument is that the origins of...
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Resource Funds: Stabilising, Parking, and Inter-generational Transfer
in Journal of African Economies
September 2016; p ublished online October 2016 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; International Finance; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; National Budget, Deficit, and Debt; Economic Development; Non-renewable Resources and Conservation. 9815 words.
The paper explores strategies for managing revenue from natural resources, focusing on the balance between domestic and foreign asset accumulation. It suggests that domestic asset...
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The Short-run Impact of Oil Windfalls in Low-income Countries: A DSGE Approach
in Journal of African Economies
June 2012; p ublished online March 2012 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance. 7435 words.
We use a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model—calibrated to the Ghanaian economy—to analyse the short-term impact of oil windfalls in low-income countries (LICs)...
Should Countries Invest Resource Revenues Abroad When Demands for Public Infrastructure Are Pressing at Home? The Dilemma of Sovereign Wealth Funds in Sub-Saharan Africa
in Journal of African Economies
September 2016; p ublished online October 2016 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; International Finance; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Economic Development; Non-renewable Resources and Conservation. 8447 words.
Setting aside some resource revenues for future generations is not controversial. So is the need to set aside some of the revenues as fiscal buffers against the risk of uncertain revenue...
Sovereign Wealth Funds and Natural Resource Management in Africa
in Journal of African Economies
September 2016; p ublished online October 2016 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; International Finance; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; Corporate Governance; Corporate Regulation; Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue; National Budget, Deficit, and Debt; Publicly Provided Goods; National Government Expenditures and Related Policies; Economic Development; Non-renewable Resources and Conservation. 8386 words.
Non-renewable resources dominate nearly one quarter of the world's economies. Over half of these economies are developing, with many in Africa. Managing resource revenues is one of the most...
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What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?
in Economic Policy
January 2015; p ublished online December 2014 .
Journal Article. Subjects: Economics; Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles; Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance; International Finance. 17734 words.
We estimate a three-country model using 1995–2013 data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyse the determinants of Germany’s current account...
