Marcel Boumans

in Science Outside the Laboratory

Published in print July 2015 | ISBN: 9780199388288
Published online May 2015 | e-ISBN: 9780199388318 | DOI:

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Expert judgment is needed to arrive at complete models. But expert judgment is personal, and experts tend to disagree. This chapter discusses methodologies of consensus. Two often-used methods of combining expert judgments are the committee-consensus method and the Delphi method. Because Roger Cooke considered both methods unscientific, he developed a method of rational consensus. Rational consensus is a weighted aggregation of expert judgments, where the weights are determined on the basis of the expert’s knowledge to judge relevant “seed variables.” Seed variables are variables for which...

Keywords: committee-consensus method; Delphi method; model-based consensus; rational consensus; seed variables

Chapter.  9901 words.  Illustrated.

Subjects: Philosophy of Science

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