Journal Article

A random point process model for the score in sport matches

Petr Volf

in IMA Journal of Management Mathematics

Published on behalf of Institute of Mathematics and its Applications

Volume 20, issue 2, pages 121-131
Published in print April 2009 | ISSN: 1471-678X
Published online October 2008 | e-ISSN: 1471-6798 | DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpn027
A random point process model for the score in sport matches

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A sequence of goals scored during sport match is modelled as a realization of two dependent random point processes. It is assumed that the scoring intensity of each team has several components depending on time or on factors describing the teams and other conditions of the match. This dependence is modelled with the aid of a semi-parametric multiplicative regression model of intensity. A method of model evaluation is presented and demonstrated on a real data set. Prediction obtained from the model via the Monte Carlo simulation is compared with real results.

Keywords: sport statistics; random point process; scoring intensity; Cox's regression model; football

Journal Article.  0 words. 

Subjects: Mathematics

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